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Title: COVID‑19 and tourism sector stock price in Spain: medium‑term relationship through dynamic regression models
Authors: Carrillo Hidalgo, Isabel
Pulido Fernández, Juan Ignacio
Durán Román, José Luis
Casado Montilla, Jairo
Abstract: The global pandemic, coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), has significantly affected tourism, especially in Spain, as it was among the first countries to be affected by the pandemic and is among the world’s biggest tourist destinations. Stock market values are responding to the evolution of the pandemic, especially in the case of tourist companies. Therefore, being able to quantify this relationship allows us to predict the effect of the pandemic on shares in the tourism sector, thereby improving the response to the crisis by policymakers and investors. Accordingly, a dynamic regression model was developed to predict the behavior of shares in the Spanish tourism sector according to the evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic in the medium term. It has been confirmed that both the number of deaths and cases are good predictors of abnormal stock prices in the tourism sector.
Keywords: COVID-19, Stock exchange, Tourism stock, Dynamic regression models, Spain
Issue Date: 6-Jan-2023
Publisher: Springer
Citation: Carrillo-Hidalgo, I., Pulido-Fernández, J.I., Durán-Román, J.L. et al. COVID-19 and tourism sector stock price in Spain: medium-term relationship through dynamic regression models. Financ Innov 9, 8 (2023).
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