Open the doors to tourism or remain cautious: residents’ dilemma amidst a pandemic

Abstract

During a pandemic, residents of tourism destinations face the dilemma of whether to welcome tourists to help the economy rebound or to oppose their arrival to minimize the risk of contagion. This paper examines the influence of residents’ perception of the economic crisis triggered by the pandemic and the health risks associated with tourist arrivals on their attitudes towards tourism impacts and willingness to support tourism development. To this end, a novel model is tested using structural equation modelling (SEM). The potential moderating effect of belonging to certain population groups is also analysed, namely (i) having a household member linked to the tourism sector, (ii) residing in the city centre, and (iii) belonging to a COVID-19 risk group. Perceived risk of contagion was found to be a stronger predictor of residents’ support for tourism development than perception of the economic crisis; an effect that increases notably among residents of the most popular tourist areas of the city. These empirical findings provide useful information with a view to designing destination planning strategies during and after the pandemic.