Tourism stock price and COVID-19: medium-term relationship with passenger transport, hotel, and tour operator subsectors
Fecha
2022-11-13
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Editor
Routledge Taylor & Francis Group
Resumen
COVID-19 has had a devastating effect on tourism in Spain, one of the
world’s biggest tourist destinations and also one of the first countries to
face the consequences of the pandemic. Tourism stock prices showed
high volatility at the beginning of the pandemic. However, we do not
yet know whether this relationship has remained throughout the
pandemic and the effect it has had on the main subsectors of tourism.
Quantifying this relationship in the medium term makes it possible to
predict the effect of the pandemic on the tourism sector stock market
and to compare the impact on its different subsectors. A dynamic
regression model has been developed to predict the stock price of the
hotel, passenger transport, and tour operator subsectors in Spain, based
on the evolution of COVID-19. Cumulative COVID-19 deaths have been
confirmed to be a good predictor of abnormal stock price in the main
tourism subsectors, affecting passenger transport more intensely than
hotels or tour operators.
Descripción
Palabras clave
COVID-19; abnormal stock price; Spain; tourism stock price; dynamic regression models
Citación
Isabel Carrillo-Hidalgo, Juan Ignacio Pulido-Fernández, Yaiza López-Sánchez & José Luis Durán-Román (2023) Tourism stock price and COVID-19: medium-term relationship with passenger transport, hotel, and tour operator subsectors, Current Issues in Tourism, 26:21, 3563-3580