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Resumen

Those in positions of leadership are accustomed to having to deal with complex and uncertain situations. However, the on-going COVID-19 pandemic has taken this challenge to a new level of complexity. Although econometric models are being used to predict economic scenarios relating to the fall-out from the pandemic, these forecasts do not factor-in the uncertainty generated by new changes announced weekly by policymakers. The aim of the present study is therefore to apply a fuzzy approach to develop a method for providing consistent and reliable forecasting scenarios that facilitate managers’ and policymaker’s decision-making in complex and uncertain situations. The chosen context of the study is the case of the potential consequences of COVID-19 for the international tourism sector in Spain, using fuzzy cognitive maps. This semi-quantitative model can help researchers to forecast the potential impact of major events in fuzzy or uncertain environments by constructing flexible and adaptable scenarios.

Descripción

Palabras clave

Fuzzy cognitive maps, semi-quantitative method, crisis management, international tourism, economic crisis

Citación

Vena-Oya, J., Castañeda-García, J. A., & Rodríguez-Molina, M. Á. (2022). Forecasting a post-COVID-19 economic crisis using fuzzy cognitive maps: a Spanish tourism-sector perspective. Current Issues in Tourism, 25(13), 2048-2062.

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