Vena-Oya, JulioCastañeda-García, José AlbertoRodríguez-Molina, Miguel Angel2024-12-172024-12-172022-07Vena-Oya, J., Castañeda-García, J. A., & Rodríguez-Molina, M. Á. (2022). Forecasting a post-COVID-19 economic crisis using fuzzy cognitive maps: a Spanish tourism-sector perspective. Current Issues in Tourism, 25(13), 2048-2062.https://doi.org/10.1080/13683500.2021.1944995https://hdl.handle.net/10953/3515Those in positions of leadership are accustomed to having to deal with complex and uncertain situations. However, the on-going COVID-19 pandemic has taken this challenge to a new level of complexity. Although econometric models are being used to predict economic scenarios relating to the fall-out from the pandemic, these forecasts do not factor-in the uncertainty generated by new changes announced weekly by policymakers. The aim of the present study is therefore to apply a fuzzy approach to develop a method for providing consistent and reliable forecasting scenarios that facilitate managers’ and policymaker’s decision-making in complex and uncertain situations. The chosen context of the study is the case of the potential consequences of COVID-19 for the international tourism sector in Spain, using fuzzy cognitive maps. This semi-quantitative model can help researchers to forecast the potential impact of major events in fuzzy or uncertain environments by constructing flexible and adaptable scenarios.engAtribución-NoComercial-SinDerivadas 3.0 Españahttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/es/Fuzzy cognitive mapssemi-quantitative methodcrisis managementinternational tourismeconomic crisisinfo:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess